HELLO...Hello...Hellooooo? Is Anybody THERE...There...There
It's been a long dry spell. There's been a bit of turmoil in the airline business and with the price of oil, things aren't looking too good for a lot of good people. How can any airline be profitable at at current fuel prices? Some analysts are projecting $200 per barrel by the end of the year!
Over the last few months, ATA, Aloha, MaxJet, EOS, Skybus, Skyway and Big Sky have either gone out of business or ceased passenger operations. In addition, Frontier filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. On top of that, one of the nation's largest regional airlines is in pretty deep financial trouble. They lost a large lawsuit filed by another carrier in Hawaii. They lost a contract from Delta flying 38 Embraer 145 aircraft out of JFK, Cincinnati and Orlando. They have a potentially large debt obligation due in June and there are rumors about the loss of flying from United Air Lines. Another regional, considered by many to be one of the best, is feeling some pain due to a takeover bid from the largest regional airline.
This is a very tough time for the aviation industry. In the current environment, today's darling of the regional airline industry can become tomorrow's pariah. I feel for those who have recently lost their job and feel fortunate that the company I work for has just announced the hiring of at least 300 additional pilots. The reason for the hiring is purely speculative. A few months ago, the rumors of our demise were flying. What a difference 90 days makes. Who knows what the next 90 days will bring? The light at the end of the tunnel could very well be another freight train. We could be pariahs again in the blink of any eye. Or, we could see the fruits of rumored growth. Who knows? Ahh, life at an airline.
Right now, one of my biggest hopes is that pilots at the legacy airlines hold on to current scope restrictions. Scope restrictions are basically the limit on the size of the aircraft that can be sub-contracted to regional carriers. Continental currently limits regional scope to 5o seats, Delta & Northwest at 76 seats, American 50, plus a small number of 70 seaters, and United at 70 (I think). The future of everyone will be brighter if mainline size aircraft stay at mainline carriers. A new crop of quasi-regional aircraft such as the utterly ridiculous CRJ-1000 (I mean seriously, how many times can Bombardier stretch a Challenger?), Bombardier C-Series, Embraer 195 and the new MRJ from Mitsubishi are just too large to be flown at regional rates. Hopefully, legacy pilots will stand firm on scope. Unfortunately, legacy carriers are going to keep pressuring their pilot groups to relax scope to 110+ seats. That's not good for any pilot.
Making any type of drastic move right now if risky. That being said, my family comes first and airline cutbacks have made an already difficult commute nearly impossible. Commuting across three time zones has never been easy. Since the cutbacks began 60 days ago, I have lost at least 4 days per month with my family. That just isn't acceptable. There were three choices:
1. Quit and go back to previous career. This really isn't an option. Too much effort and time, as well as sacrifices from my wife and children, has been spent to give up.
2. Move to another airline with a base closer to home. Making a lateral move in a seniority business is never a good idea. The current health of the airline business makes it virtual career suicide.
3. Relocate to my domicile. This is the option we have chosen.
Yes, there are still risks involved in moving across the country. With the current mega-merger, will my home domicile even be around post merger? Will I even have a job? The important part is that my wife and children will be closer. They are all excited about the change of scenery. Going from the desert to an area with four seasons will be nice. The cost of living is much lower in the Midwest too. From housing to food to energy costs, it's just more affordable.
So that's where things stand. We're getting ready for a huge change in our life and things are going to be very hectic for another six to eight weeks.
Right after moving, it will be time for two weeks of differences training followed by a check ride and some IOE. It appears that all future growth at my airline will be 76 seat CRJ-900's and that is the place to be. I just hope that 76 seats is the upper limit.
